CME FedWatch Tool - FOMC Rate Probabilities

📈 Market Outlook

Market expects RATE CUTS from 4.25-4.50% to 3.00-3.25% by year-end 2026.

Implied Fed Funds Rate from futures: 3.08% (Dec 2026) → 117 bps of cuts priced in.

Meeting Date	Days to Meeting	Current Target Rate	25 bps Cut	50 bps Cut	75 bps Cut	25 bps Hike	50 bps Hike
Mar 18, 2026	37	4.25-4.50%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	84.3%	15.7%
Apr 29, 2026	79	4.25-4.50%	0.0%	0.0%	3.0%	68.0%	28.9%
Jun 17, 2026	128	4.25-4.50%	0.0%	0.0%	17.6%	29.7%	51.0%
Jul 29, 2026	170	4.25-4.50%	0.0%	0.0%	30.2%	18.5%	43.0%
Sep 16, 2026	219	4.25-4.50%	0.0%	0.0%	35.6%	10.6%	32.5%
Oct 28, 2026	261	4.25-4.50%	0.0%	0.0%	34.9%	7.9%	27.0%
Dec 09, 2026	303	4.25-4.50%	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	6.3%	23.2%

Methodology: Probabilities calculated using CME FedWatch binary probability tree model. For each meeting, the implied rate from Fed Funds futures prices determines the probability of rate changes.
Note: "25 bps Hike" column shows probability of rates being at 3.50-3.75% (75 bps cut from current). "50 bps Hike" column shows probability of rates being at 3.25-3.50% (100 bps cut from current).

📊 CME FedWatch Tool

📈 Market Outlook